Mathematical Data

When trying to figure out the correct number of Goblins to defeat Stoneforge Mystic in to Batterskull or the probability that your opponent has a Force of WIll in their opening hand, it's easier to memorize this content than do the math on the spot!

Empty The Warrens
Stoneforge Mystic
Batterskull

 

Play/Draw Turn Number of Goblins required
On the Play 1 10
On the Play 2 14
On the Play 3 18
On the Draw 1 14
On the Draw 2 18

 

Figuring out the minimum number of goblins necessary to beat an opponent's Stoneforge Mystic for Batterskull isn't exactly uncommon in Legacy or the EPIC Storm in general, the chart above will help determine the amount of goblins required on a specific turn to overcome this scenario.

Ten goblins on the play are enough. On turn one, you make ten goblins and your opponent plays a land. You attack for ten (10 damage total) and your opponent plays land and plays Stoneforge Mystic. You attack with ten goblins and one gets blocked (19 damage total). Your opponent does nothing. When you attack a third time, your opponent activates Stoneforge Mystic and makes a Germ. The Germ blocks a token, letting eight tokens through but gaining four life for a total of four damage (23 damage total).

Note: With just eight goblins on the play, you deal eight damage, then seven, then two, leaving you with six goblins and an opponent at three life. Because the Germ has vigilance, it attacks on their fourth turn, putting them to six and effectively out of reach.

On the draw, you need more goblins. If you make fourteen goblins on turn one, your opponent can play Stoneforge Mystic on their turn. You attack with fourteen goblins and thirteen get through (13 damage total). On your next turn, you attack with thirteen goblins, your opponent forges Batterskull and blocks, gaining four life but letting twelve goblins through for eight damage (21 damage total).

Note: Twelve goblins would not have accomplished this. Also, notice that if your opponent has a turn one creature that can block twice (such as a Deathrite Shaman or a Delver of Secrets that flips on turn 1), they can survive even fourteen turn one goblins!

If you are not making goblins until turn two, the situation is worse. Turn two on the play is the same as turn one on the draw, so once again you need fourteen goblins. If you are on the draw, you need eighteen goblins.

Suppose your opponent has just cast Stoneforge Mystic on their second turn. On your turn, you make eighteen goblins. When you attack on your third turn, they put Batterskull into play and block, letting seventeen goblins through and gaining four life for thirteen damage (13 damage total). Because the Germ token has vigilance, it attacks, gaining them four life (9 damage total). You now attack with seventeen goblins and both the Stoneforge Mystic and the Germ can block, so fifteen goblins get through and deal eleven damage (20 damage total). Obviously this plan is fragile as removing a single goblin is enough give the opponent an extra turn.

After the second turn, it's typically a good idea to avoid casting Empty the Warrens. Although, technically making 18 goblins on turn three on the play beats just Stoneforge Mystic into Batterskull.

Force Of Will

 

4 Force of Will in deck (Odds of opponent having at least 1)

  • 39.9% 1 Force of Will drawn, 4 in deck, 7 card hand, 60 card deck.
  • 35.1% 1 Force of Will drawn, 4 in deck, 6 card hand, 60 card deck.
  • 30.1% 1 Force of Will drawn, 4 in deck, 5 card hand, 60 card deck.
  • 24.7% 1 Force of Will drawn, 4 in deck, 4 card hand, 60 card deck.

Cumulative odds if opponent mulligans to find a Force of Will

  • 39.9% 1 Force of Will drawn, 4 in deck, 7 card hand, 60 card deck.
  • 61.1% 1 Force of Will drawn, 4 in deck, 6 card hand, 60 card deck.
  • 72.8% 1 Force of Will drawn, 4 in deck, 5 card hand, 60 card deck.
  • 79.5% 1 Force of Will drawn, 4 in deck, 4 card hand, 60 card deck.

Chance of a blue card to accompany Force of Will

Number of Cards in Hand 20 Blue Cards 16 Blue Cards
7 card hand 91.5% 84.3%
6 card hand 86.9% 78.3%
5 card hand 79.9% 70.2%
4 card hand 69.6% 59.3%

 

4 Force of Will & 4 Daze in Deck (Odds of opponent having at least 1)

  • 65.4% 1 Force of Will and/or Daze drawn, 8 in deck, 7 card hand, 60 card deck.
  • 59.3% 1 Force of Will and/or Daze drawn, 8 in deck, 6 card hand, 60 card deck.
  • 52.4% 1 Force of Will and/or Daze drawn, 8 in deck, 5 card hand, 60 card deck.
  • 44.5% 1 Force of Will and/or Daze drawn, 8 in deck, 4 card hand, 60 card deck.

Cumulative odds if opponent mulligans to find a Force of Will or Daze

  • 65.4% 1 Force of Will and/or Daze drawn, 8 in deck, 7 card hand, 60 card deck.
  • 85.9% 1 Force of Will and/or Daze drawn, 8 in deck, 6 card hand, 60 card deck.
  • 93.2% 1 Force of Will and/or Daze drawn, 8 in deck, 5 card hand, 60 card deck.
  • 96.3% 1 Force of Will and/or Daze drawn, 8 in deck, 4 card hand, 60 card deck.

 

Infernal Tutor

 

4 Infernal Tutor in deck

  • 33.6280% 1 Infernal Tutor drawn, 4 in deck, 7 card hand, 60 card deck.
  • 5.9344% 2 Infernal Tutor drawn, 4 in deck, 7 card hand, 60 card deck.
  • 0.3804% 3 Infernal Tutor drawn, 4 in deck, 7 card hand, 60 card deck.
  • 0.0072% 4 Infernal Tutor drawn, 4 in deck, 7 card hand, 60 card deck.
  • = 39.95% chance of drawing total

3 Infernal Tutor in deck

  • 28.1882% 1 Infernal Tutor drawn, 4 in deck, 7 card hand, 60 card deck.
  • 3.2525% 2 Infernal Tutor drawn, 4 in deck, 7 card hand, 60 card deck.
  • 0.1023% 3 Infernal Tutor drawn, 4 in deck, 7 card hand, 60 card deck.
  • = 31.5430% chance of drawing
Diminishing Returns

 

Situation

Mana Floating/Win Percentage

  • None: 18%
  • U: 38%
  • R: 42%
  • B: 42%
  • UU: 54%
  • UR: 66%
  • UB: 66%
  • RR: 54%
  • RB: 66%
  • BB: 60%
  • (U/B/R): 48%
  • (U/B/R) (U/B/R): 70%
  • U (U/B/R): 66%
  • R (U/B/R): 70%
  • B (U/B/R): 70%

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