When trying to figure out the correct number of Goblins to defeat Stoneforge Mystic in to Batterskull or the probability that your opponent has a Force of Will in their opening hand, it’s easier to memorize this content than do the math on the spot!
Data
Finding these counterspells with the London Mulligan
These probabilities are calculated assuming that your opponent only cares if their hand contains one of the listed counterspells. The raw numbers assume that they found zero of those cards in previous hands and at least one in the indicated hand. The cumulative numbers are the sum of the raw numbers and represent the probability that your opponent finds at least one by the time they hit the corresponding hand size. The numbers for six-and-fewer-card hands are greater than the same numbers would have been under the Vancouver mulligan rules.
4 Force of Will
| Cards in Hand | Raw % | Cumulative % |
| 7 Cards | 39.9% | 39.9% |
| 6 Cards | 24.0% | 63.9% |
| 5 Cards | 14.4% | 78.3% |
| 4 Cards | 8.7% | 87.0% |
4 Force of Will & 2 Negation
| Cards in Hand | Raw % | Cumulative % |
| 7 Cards | 54.1% | 54.1% |
| 6 Cards | 24.8% | 78.9% |
| 5 Cards | 11.4% | 90.3% |
| 4 Cards | 5.2% | 95.5% |
4 Force of Will & 4 Daze
| Cards in Hand | Raw % | Cumulative % |
| 7 Cards | 65.4% | 65.4% |
| 6 Cards | 22.6% | 88.0% |
| 5 Cards | 7.8% | 95.8% |
| 4 Cards | 2.7% | 98.5% |
| Play/Draw | Turn | Number of Goblins required |
| On the Play | 1 | 10 |
| On the Play | 2 | 14 |
| On the Play | 3 | 18 |
| On the Draw | 1 | 14 |
| On the Draw | 2 | 18 |
Figuring out the minimum number of Goblins necessary to beat an opponent’s Stoneforge Mystic for Batterskull isn’t exactly uncommon in Legacy or the EPIC Storm in general. The chart above will help determine the amount of Goblins required on a specific turn to overcome this scenario.
Ten Goblins on the play are enough. On turn one, you make 10 Goblins and your opponent plays a land. You attack for 10 (10 damage total) and your opponent plays land and plays Stoneforge Mystic. You then attack with 10 Goblins again, and one gets blocked (19 damage total). Your opponent does nothing. When you attack a third time, your opponent activates Stoneforge Mystic and makes a Germ. The Germ blocks a token, letting eight tokens through but gaining four life for a total of four damage (23 damage total).
Note: With just eight Goblins on the play, you deal eight damage, then seven, then two, leaving you with six Goblins and an opponent at three life. Because the Germ has vigilance, it attacks on their fourth turn, putting them to six and effectively out of reach.
On the draw, you need more Goblins. If you make 14 Goblins on turn one, your opponent can play Stoneforge Mystic on their turn. You attack with 14 Goblins and 13 get through (13 damage total). On your next turn, you attack with 13 Goblins, your opponent forges Batterskull and blocks, gaining four life but letting 12 Goblins through for eight damage (21 damage total).
Note: A dozen Goblins would not have accomplished this. Also, notice that if your opponent has a turn one creature that can block twice (such as a Delver of Secrets that flips on turn one), they can survive even 14 turn one Goblins!
If you are not making Goblins until turn two, the situation is worse. Turn two on the play is the same as turn one on the draw, so once again you need 14 Goblins. If you are on the draw, you need 18 Goblins.
Suppose your opponent has just cast Stoneforge Mystic on their second turn. On your turn, you make 18 Goblins When you attack on your third turn, they put Batterskull into play and block, letting 17 Goblins through and gaining four life for 13 damage (13 damage total). Because the Germ token has vigilance, it attacks, gaining them four life (9 damage total). You now attack with 17 Goblins and both the Stoneforge Mystic and the Germ can block, so 15 Goblins get through and deal 11 damage (20 damage total). Obviously, this plan is fragile as removing a single Goblin is enough give the opponent an extra turn.
After the second turn, it’s typically a good idea to avoid casting Empty the Warrens. Although, technically making 18 Goblins on turn three on the play beats just Stoneforge Mystic into Batterskull.
The math behind the engine
Situation
- One Burning Wish is exiled.
- You have two tapped lands in play (Volcanic Island and Underground Sea).
- The opponent is at 20 life.
- The storm count is four (including Echo of Eons).
- You are at a safe life total for Ad Nauseam.
- You haven’t played a land yet this turn.
Mana Floating/Win Percentage
- None: 18%
- : 38%
- : 42%
- : 42%
- : 54%
- : 66%
- : 66%
- : 54%
- : 66%
- : 60%
- (//): 48%
- (//) (//): 70%
- (//): 66%
- (//): 70%
- (//): 70%
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