Matchup Mulligan: Dredge II

Keep

An important aspect to the Sultai Beanstalk matchup is understanding you have plenty of time. They won’t kill you quickly, so you can remove all four Suspend counters from [[Gaea’s Will]] naturally. [[Thoughtseize]] can protect [[Gaea’s Will]] from [[Stifle]] or other countermagic. You may dislike that this hand doesn’t have cantrips to sculpt a game plan, but we have Surveil lands from Murders at Karlov Manor! [[Undercity Sewers]] and the like offer some decision-making with our land drops, a tool The EPIC Storm really leverages.

Mulligan

Whether this hand is a keep or mulligan is really based on the type of Dredge deck our opponent is playing and post-Warhammer 40K. With [[Poxwalkers]] entering Legacy, it is safe to assume most Dredge decks feature a [[Dread Return]] package to win the game. As such, hiding behind a copy [[Veil of Summer]] or two won’t protect you. While [[Veil of Summer]] can defend against [[Cabal Therapy]], it can’t prevent lethal Haste damage. Without the ability to sit back and hide, this hand is way too slow; an easy mulligan.

Keep

If we assume our opponent is playing faster “Turbo” Dredge, they won’t have [[Force of Will]]. This hand is capable of a first turn [[Echo of Eons]] with three spare mana and Storm four to begin the game. I often look at [[Echo of Eons]] as a value card. Even if the new seven cards don’t win on the spot, you’ve started the game with permanent resources and Storm count, which is valuable in a [[Galvanic Relay]] deck.

Keep

We’re facing a [[Cabal Therapy]] deck that could also feature [[Grief]]. Hands like this, which feature two action spells that are unlikely to be named with [[Cabal Therapy]], are really good. If the opponent has multiple copies of [[Cabal Therapy]] or is wise enough to name [[Burning Wish]], we are fine to [[Galvanic Relay]]. Assuming the average situation occurs and your hand remains intact, we’re one mana away from a deterministic win via [[Burning Wish]] for the sideboard copy of [[Beseech the Mirror]]. I often consider “if this, then that” scenarios with opening hands. With the increase in threat density in The EPIC Storm, it’s a good time for those who like decision trees. This is even more true if you know the matchup when sitting down for game one, as you can mulligan to the preferred Storm engine (e.g., [[Echo of Eons]] against graveyard archetypes).

Keep

TURN ONE WIN BABY! As I mentioned in Hand No. 2, I would not respect [[Force of Will]] out of Dredge decks. I am going to disrespect our opponent’s ability to interact and put the win on the stack.

Cast [[Lotus Petal]], [[Chrome Mox]] (Imprint: [[Galvanic Relay]]), [[Dark Ritual]], [[Cabal Ritual]], tap the [[Chrome Mox]] for , [[Beseech the Mirror]], [[Gaea’s Will]], recast everything, and [[Tendrils of Agony]].

Mulligan

If you’re an avid reader of this article series, you may be familiar with me saying that we’re roughly 34 percent turn-over-turn to draw an action spell. This has changed recently with the addition of more payoff spells in The EPIC Storm; it’s now 43 percent (not counting [[Gaea’s Will]]). This percentage does not include sculpting with Surveil lands from Murders at Karlov Manor either! Dredge is fast and I we can’t afford multiple draw steps. So, this hand questionable.

Keep

If we can’t win on turn one, this is what I want my hand to look like! We can disrupt the opponent with [[Thoughtseize]] and follow with a deterministic [[Beseech the Mirror]] into [[Gaea’s Will]] line. There is one condition, however; we need to draw any card we can Imprint under [[Chrome Mox]]. I’m willing to take that risk.

Mulligan

IT’S A TRAP! Hands like this one are far too reactive. [[Thoughtseize]] is not good on the draw since your opponent has likely already done their thing. Having answers to [[Leyline of the Void]] or even [[Leyline of Sanctity]] is nice, but you can win around them. This hand is slow in how it reacts and how it combos. We’re too far from putting a win on the stack; easy mulligan.

Keep

Surveil lands have a cost: they aren’t always “free to play” in fast matchups. In this situation, we would’ve liked an untapped land. The silver lining is that our hand still functions. Assuming our opponent doesn’t begin the game with [[Leyline of the Void]], we can [[Chrome Mox]] (Imprint: [[Echoing Truth]]) and [[Ponder]] looking for [[Echo of Eons]]. If we miss but find [[Beseech the Mirror]], we can set up a line with [[Brainstorm]] on the following turn to draw into [[Beseech the Mirror]] using [[Lion’s Eye Diamond]] to create to cast it! Let’s assume you find nothing, you can untap and cast [[Brainstorm]] on the second turn. There’s many opportunities to win the game. Against discard strategies, I play out my artifacts (including [[Lion’s Eye Diamond]]). They’re safer on the battlefield than in your hand!

Mulligan

We have 20 cards in our deck that win us the game; a 37 percent success rate, which is lower than Hand No. 5, which we didn’t keep! Players are sometimes blinded by “the busted” cards in hand when, in reality, they should be more math oriented. This also assumes we aren’t hit by a [[Cabal Therapy]] naming the two most likely cards in our hand: [[Beseech the Mirror]] and [[Lion’s Eye Diamond]].

Share your answer in the comments below!

I’ll provide my answer in the next Matchup Mulligan. For now, make sure to leave a comment with your thoughts!